Dow Jones Industrial averages now midway in technical long term range of 18,000 (base) – 25,000 (minimum target) offering sizable space both north and south to correct for ensuing fear and greed.
Stock picking is back as favored strategy as fog from unconsidered information, sensationalizing news feeds, popular pundits and programming content now misguidedly skew strategies towards trading (price centric) while fundamental research defers to passive investing creating future herd for cliff diving.
Recent examples differentiating dynamism (constructive effort) to consensus acceptable stagnation and apparently consensus “fiduciaries,” include enterprise management and journalism. At its overpriced $75 per share price, Colgate-Palmolive was news feeding and pundit sensationalism fodder to create anxiety that soon it would become a $100 take over target. Any considered understanding of Colgate’s worldwide distribution and brand saturation would suggest that it’s they that are to takeover -reverse rolls- for a worldwide weak distribution enterprise such as Hershey Co., or that Walmart re-brands itself as Jet.com so that more than a handful of people know who they are, has a chance to compete with Amazon.com Co., and show they have an understanding of business execution for tomorrow, not yesterday. Branded value added food remains challenging for savings placement. While Kraft Heinz Co., shows them all how to execute all natural to legacy processed foods, they suffer too much debt while Campbell Soup blew its opportunity to lead with acquiring premium this and that and, carrot farms, leaving store center in 1950 appearance and food quality. Tesla Inc., digs underneath the argumentative upper crust eminent domain, time, regulation and costs to take those damn Prius’ off the traveled routes.
Approximately half of all U.S. listed stocks have disappeared in a single generation. Approximately half of those remaining are wasting assets. Don’t let the fog from unconsidered information and hierarchy blind your view to future income streams and value.
Consensus advice to “invest[sic]” offshore is not simply misguided but unconsidered breach of fiduciary care to churn stock sales for a fee (passive investment products manufacturing and fee manager razzle-dazzle justification for existence) in a very short term cycle within the cover of consensus.
Consensus advice is that “growth” is offshore and their cover is that current policy is protectionism and isolationism. Contrarily “profits (stock prices)” flow to those who are legally protected enterprises within politically stable borders that sell into growth. Is it protectionism and isolationism to want to live within our means for sustainability and posterity? Isn’t consensus advice that what’s good for the goose ain’t so for the gander?
The income portfolio is up 15% year to date, which should mean nothing to you unless you intend to sell tomorrow, as this is an income portfolio, not a trading platform. It remains uncharacteristically bias bent to classic growth (see last quarter’s post). Sign of a bubble? No. More characteristic of a continuing rolling bear market adjusting fear and greed one industry at a time. Recent $13.7B Whole Foods acquisition took out more than $60B market capitalization from those unwilling to step into the future.
Stocks with asterisks included in current income portfolio, others should be but are too expensive here for entry (your basis dependent -buy during a swoon):
*Amazon.com, *Celgene, *Cisco Systems, *Hershey, *Intuit, *NVDIA, *Skyworks Solutions, *United Technologies, *V.F. Corp., Tesla Inc., Chipotle Mexican Grill, Johnson & Johnson, W.W. Grainger, Colgate-Palmolive, Kraft Heinz Co., Lockheed Martin and The Boeing Co.
Hope this helps someone -Al