1st Quarter 2018: Betwixt and Between

As U.S. stock index averages see new heights (an additional 7% minimum upside by measured move) and the “Wall of Worry” crumbles, the stock markets will confound majority consensuses.

Generalizing, ensuing gains from capital appreciation will be retraced sometime in the not too distant future, in excess of 20% from peak to future trough, most likely to our secular trend line or our long term patterns dating to 2015.

As daunting as an “in excess of 20%” sounds, it’s a correction within a larger secular Bull. Ride the Bull. Weigh portfolio to 25% cash and 75% selected stocks during quarter as S&P500 index approaches 2875 (minimum upside target).

Technical Analysis is a process which provides discipline for buying and selling decisions to avoid action(s) based on outside your mind advice, incompetence and/or usury and fraud (not to mention greed and fear). Combined with stock selection based on visible future earnings (top down approach) sustainable balance sheets (bottom up approach) and valuations determined by performance accomplished (not promised), concentrated portfolios avoid losers (save crowd misbehavior).

January 1, 2018 Income Portfolio Components: 

The Hershey Company

McCormick & Company

NVIDIA Corporation

PayPal Holdings, Inc.

Synchrony Financial

Vantiv, Inc.

Happy New Year –Al


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